June 2020: rainfall monitoring and forecasting for North-Horr (Kenya)

Global weather models, such as the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS), are very valuable tools to predict large scale weather patterns or features, however their resolution is too coarse to provide reliable weather prediction at local scale.

Within the One Health project, several actors are involved in sharing their expertise in weather monitoring and forecasting using traditional indicators, satellite precipitation estimates and numerical weather prediction models.

According with community predictions, North Horr Sub-County will not experience any serious drought in June-July 2020, and probably also during the following months.

January to April 2020 have been characterized by above average to close to average rainfall, while May 2020 experienced below average rainfall. In the first week of June some showers affected the South and North areas of North Horr Sub-County.

GFS model forecasts an increasing likelihood of rainfall for the following days, especially on 13th and 14th of June 2020, as shown in the images below taken from the One Health interactive Web-Application.

Thanks to daily measurements of rainfall collected at community level, using rain gauges installed at health facility level, the situation will be monitored and scientific data will be recorded and integrated with comments and observations from the ground.

GFS-7days accumulated rainfall forecast over North Horr Sub-County

GFS-3hours rainfall forecast from 9th of June to 16th of June 2020 over North Horr

This analysis is produced in the framework of the One Health project: Multidisciplinary approach to promote the health and resilience of pastoralist in North Kenya – AID11507. It is a 3-year initiative funded by the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation, aimed at improving the access and coordination of human and animal health services and of early warning and response systems to dangerous events that could put the pastoralist communities' health in North Horr Sub-County at risk. The project is led by CCM-Comitato Collaborazione Medica in partnership with VSF Germany - Veterinarians without Borders Germany, TriM - Translate into Meaning, and DIST - Interuniversity Department of Regional and Urban Studies and Planning.